League One
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 3,281 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.3034
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
0.08360
low-score correction
Teams modelled
52
Log-likelihood
-819
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipswich | 1.6680 | 0.5817 | 152 |
| 2 | Cardiff | 1.6258 | 0.8631 | 32 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 1.4629 | 0.5370 | 46 |
| 4 | Lincoln | 1.4291 | 0.8502 | 275 |
| 5 | Sheffield Weds | 1.3879 | 0.7292 | 92 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 1.3754 | 1.4664 | 167 |
| 7 | Oxford | 1.3065 | 1.0620 | 197 |
| 8 | Portsmouth | 1.2881 | 0.8051 | 197 |
| 9 | Derby | 1.2562 | 0.6740 | 92 |
| 10 | Peterboro | 1.2456 | 1.1677 | 229 |
| 11 | Reading | 1.2456 | 1.0913 | 124 |
| 12 | Charlton | 1.2370 | 0.8385 | 230 |
| 13 | Huddersfield | 1.2222 | 1.1229 | 79 |
| 14 | Plymouth | 1.2006 | 1.1445 | 170 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 1.1688 | 0.5959 | 46 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1.1264 | 0.9612 | 107 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 1.1181 | 1.4901 | 46 |
| 18 | Leyton Orient | 1.0960 | 1.2303 | 123 |
| 19 | Stockport | 1.0959 | 0.8685 | 77 |
| 20 | Wycombe | 1.0811 | 0.8685 | 227 |
| 21 | Luton | 1.0597 | 0.9958 | 32 |
| 22 | Bolton | 1.0561 | 0.8735 | 231 |
| 23 | Blackpool | 1.0539 | 1.1750 | 182 |
| 24 | Hull | 0.9891 | 0.9772 | 46 |
| 25 | Mansfield | 0.9796 | 0.9992 | 76 |
| 26 | Rochdale | 0.9607 | 1.0326 | 57 |
| 27 | Bradford | 0.9576 | 0.8352 | 31 |
| 28 | Coventry | 0.9529 | 0.9979 | 12 |
| 29 | Swindon | 0.9526 | 1.0543 | 46 |
| 30 | Southend | 0.9515 | 1.0018 | 12 |
| 31 | Tranmere | 0.9510 | 1.0016 | 12 |
| 32 | Doncaster | 0.9440 | 1.3699 | 137 |
| 33 | AFC Wimbledon | 0.9384 | 1.2213 | 135 |
| 34 | Burton | 0.9098 | 1.1943 | 274 |
| 35 | Rotherham | 0.8972 | 1.2082 | 134 |
| 36 | Fleetwood Town | 0.8935 | 1.2481 | 198 |
| 37 | Exeter | 0.8843 | 0.9265 | 169 |
| 38 | Morecambe | 0.8791 | 1.4763 | 92 |
| 39 | Crewe | 0.8485 | 1.2379 | 92 |
| 40 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0.8451 | 1.1162 | 150 |
| 41 | Gillingham | 0.8297 | 1.1010 | 104 |
| 42 | Stevenage | 0.8100 | 0.8776 | 123 |
| 43 | Cambridge | 0.8070 | 1.2224 | 184 |
| 44 | Cheltenham | 0.7910 | 1.2017 | 138 |
| 45 | Northampton | 0.7906 | 1.1435 | 170 |
| 46 | Wigan | 0.7835 | 1.0308 | 215 |
| 47 | Bristol Rvs | 0.7809 | 1.3898 | 197 |
| 48 | Carlisle | 0.7502 | 1.5836 | 46 |
| 49 | Accrington | 0.7189 | 1.4195 | 150 |
| 50 | Shrewsbury | 0.7048 | 1.3584 | 242 |
| 51 | Port Vale | 0.6828 | 1.2920 | 121 |
| 52 | Forest Green | 0.4846 | 1.6440 | 46 |