Dixon-Coles Models
32 leagues fitted — updated weekly
| League | Teams | Matches | Home Adv | ρ (rho) | Log-lik | Fitted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. HNL | 10 | 305 | 1.296 | -0.1214 | -265 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| 2. Bundesliga | 33 | 1,872 | 1.168 | -0.0971 | -449 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Allsvenskan | 18 | 350 | 1.078 | -0.1077 | -238 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Bundesliga | 40 | 2,369 | 1.181 | -0.0754 | -1014 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Championship | 44 | 3,558 | 1.189 | -0.0842 | -1125 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Ekstraklasa | 21 | 507 | 1.280 | -0.0864 | -452 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Eliteserien | 18 | 354 | 1.412 | 0.0103 | -274 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| FA Cup | 280 | 984 | 1.245 | 0.0315 | -679 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Jupiler Pro League | 24 | 1,807 | 1.141 | -0.0584 | -432 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| La Liga | 30 | 2,472 | 1.345 | -0.0213 | -706 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| La Liga 2 | 47 | 2,935 | 1.265 | 0.0099 | -823 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| League One | 52 | 3,281 | 1.303 | 0.0836 | -819 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| League Two | 46 | 3,299 | 1.154 | 0.0395 | -811 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Liga Portugal | 20 | 531 | 1.268 | -0.0777 | -474 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Ligue 1 | 30 | 2,168 | 1.244 | 0.0564 | -647 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Ligue 2 | 40 | 2,122 | 1.127 | 0.0810 | -436 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| National League (Conference) | 47 | 3,139 | 1.179 | -0.0840 | -793 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Premier League | 20 | 392 | 1.038 | -0.0294 | -301 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Premier League | 18 | 386 | 1.450 | -0.1188 | -283 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Premier League | 30 | 2,534 | 1.157 | -0.1387 | -858 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Primeira Liga | 28 | 1,910 | 1.254 | 0.0437 | -435 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Pro League | 18 | 530 | 1.107 | -0.0373 | -478 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Scottish Championship | 21 | 1,018 | 1.147 | -0.1586 | -252 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Scottish League One | 25 | 995 | 1.160 | -0.0661 | -263 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Scottish League Two | 20 | 994 | 0.932 | -0.1794 | -264 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Scottish Premiership | 15 | 1,372 | 1.339 | -0.0516 | -397 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Serie A | 31 | 2,368 | 1.134 | 0.0170 | -648 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Serie B | 47 | 2,345 | 1.300 | -0.0990 | -674 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Super League | 13 | 389 | 1.213 | -0.1768 | -404 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Super League Greece | 21 | 1,468 | 1.201 | -0.0926 | -322 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Süper Lig | 36 | 2,455 | 1.148 | -0.2518 | -682 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
| Superliga | 13 | 313 | 1.151 | -0.0811 | -273 | 16 Mar 2026 | → |
Home Adv — multiplicative home-field advantage (γ). Values above 1 favour the home side. ρ — Dixon-Coles low-score correlation; negative values (typical) mean 0-0 and 1-1 are slightly less common than pure Poisson predicts.