⚽ FootballData
Dixon-Coles/FA Cup

FA Cup

Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 984 matches since 2020-01-01

Home Advantage (γ)
1.2451
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
0.03149
low-score correction
Teams modelled
280
Log-likelihood
-679

Team Parameters

Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.

#TeamAttack (α)Defense (β)Matches
1Chelsea
4.2588
0.8455
4
2Burton
4.0960
0.2632
5
3AFC Wulfrunians
3.0395
2.0532
5
4Macclesfield
2.8327
0.6964
9
5Chippenham Town
2.7271
1.0294
6
6King's Lynn Town
2.5713
1.3102
6
7Le Havre
2.4501
0.9117
5
8Sheppey United
2.4315
1.1936
6
9Carlton Town
2.4246
0.8532
5
10Needham Market
2.3618
1.0925
5
11Sherwood Colliery
2.3282
1.0567
4
12Liverpool
2.2910
1.1948
13
13Dorking
2.2610
1.1737
4
14Waltham Abbey
2.1886
1.9752
7
15Gateshead
2.1406
0.7517
5
16Lowestoft Town
2.1295
2.0717
6
17Sholing
2.0986
0.3928
4
18Billericay Town
2.0724
0.2830
6
19Ashton United
2.0710
0.8160
6
20Horsham
2.0602
1.5697
10
21Whitstable Town
2.0515
0.7892
6
22Worthing
2.0503
0.5153
7
23Longridge Town
2.0263
1.4158
4
24Wealdstone
2.0031
1.1969
5
25Cheltenham
1.9975
1.1096
4
26Birmingham
1.9959
1.3336
6
27Mansfield
1.9658
1.3421
6
28Kettering Town
1.9521
0.8177
7
29Exeter
1.9445
4.5275
3
30Walsall
1.8123
0.3036
3
31Tonbridge Angels
1.8047
1.1085
9
32Hednesford Town
1.7745
0.5661
13
33Weymouth
1.7688
1.6080
4
34Ebbsfleet
1.7657
0.9326
5
35Grimsby
1.7388
0.8794
11
36Southport
1.7339
0.8542
3
37Atherstone Town
1.7269
1.6587
5
38Brixham
1.7220
1.1915
4
39Doncaster
1.7212
1.7464
4
40South Shields
1.7207
1.2055
4
41Halesowen Town
1.7025
0.9894
12
42Folkestone Invicta
1.6968
0.5202
4
43Leicester
1.6869
0.6457
5
44Buxton
1.6777
1.2246
6
45Chadderton
1.6743
1.0273
5
46Matlock Town
1.6624
0.5276
5
47Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.6610
0.8096
13
48Tadley Calleva
1.6562
1.6803
4
49Rushall Olympic
1.6540
0.9302
7
50Newmarket Town
1.6454
1.7227
10
51Jersey Bulls
1.6277
1.1911
3
52Sheffield United
1.6246
2.0633
2
53Gainsborough Trinity
1.6135
1.0388
8
54Sevenoaks Town
1.5879
1.5359
5
55Worksop Town
1.5830
1.2423
5
56Weston-super-Mare
1.5732
0.4957
11
57Guiseley
1.5656
0.8012
6
58Southampton
1.5593
0.6555
4
59Witton Albion
1.5575
0.8348
9
60Leighton Town
1.5469
1.2884
4
61Bournemouth
1.5414
2.2783
5
62Altrincham
1.5358
0.9068
5
63Thatcham Town
1.5303
0.9197
8
64Hanworth Villa
1.4953
1.4236
4
65Scunthorpe
1.4912
0.6174
5
66Wimborne Town
1.4885
1.6049
3
67Chertsey Town
1.4856
2.0196
6
68Melksham Town
1.4845
1.4308
9
69Shildon AFC
1.4748
1.6934
7
70Hallam
1.4567
0.8198
5
71Port Vale
1.4451
0.8655
8
72Nottingham Forest
1.4086
1.3070
6
73Gorleston
1.3994
0.6722
11
74Spennymoor Town
1.3989
0.2228
5
75Harborough Town
1.3985
1.2202
11
76Wythenshawe Town
1.3932
0.9134
7
77Wingate & Finchley
1.3882
1.7471
6
78Bedfont Sports
1.3857
1.5549
4
79Wrexham
1.3821
0.9944
9
80Farnham Town
1.3714
0.9345
12
81Crystal Palace
1.3505
0.4267
6
82Hanley Town
1.3489
0.7808
4
83Swindon
1.3445
1.4908
9
84Accrington
1.3190
0.7942
5
85Blackpool
1.3167
1.0088
4
86Manchester City
1.3113
0.8866
70
87St Pauli
1.3040
1.0717
22
88Crawley Town
1.3027
1.8740
52
89Torpoint Athletic
1.3004
0.8848
2
90Trafford
1.2901
1.4949
5
91Roma
1.2899
0.8542
5
92Redbridge
1.2799
0.9471
10
93Basford United
1.2720
0.9293
12
94Sutton
1.2698
1.3521
12
95Bury
1.2677
1.2358
70
96Salford
1.2530
1.2055
7
97Eastwood Community
1.2504
0.8312
6
98Faversham Town
1.2479
1.1978
13
99Bishop Auckland
1.2432
1.6389
6
100Oldham
1.2292
1.1826
2
101Brackley Town
1.2266
1.0627
6
102Sporting Khalsa
1.2196
1.1613
8
103Cockfosters
1.2129
1.3424
6
104Hertford Town
1.2120
1.2509
14
105Blackfield & Langley
1.2077
1.8396
5
106Histon
1.2065
1.3798
3
107Thame
1.1985
1.1349
5
108Slough Town
1.1891
0.9700
9
109Pontefract Collieries
1.1890
1.5474
4
110Morpeth Town
1.1856
1.2640
5
111Newcastle
1.1792
1.8158
20
112Runcorn Linnets
1.1548
0.3498
8
113Anstey Nomads
1.1491
1.1622
3
114Cambridge
1.1442
1.0561
7
115Corinthian
1.1434
2.7531
8
116Laverstock & Ford
1.1336
1.8212
9
117Pau FC
1.1328
1.8657
17
118Man United
1.1319
1.4414
51
119Carlisle
1.1303
2.2940
4
120Kendal Town
1.1136
1.0467
7
121Merstham
1.1086
2.2408
4
122Gent
1.0963
2.1033
5
123Spal
1.0885
1.1610
7
124Mulbarton Wanderers
1.0860
0.8911
7
125Bromsgrove Sporting
1.0843
2.9877
3
126Darlaston Town
1.0809
0.8652
4
127Tipton Town
1.0805
1.6786
12
128Three Bridges
1.0781
1.2470
5
129Biggleswade
1.0742
2.8020
9
130Club Brugge
1.0732
1.8037
9
131Nantwich Town
1.0729
0.7402
3
132Birtley Town
1.0723
2.1591
5
133Boreham Wood
1.0716
1.0810
5
134Romsey Town
1.0556
0.8518
7
135Curzon Ashton
1.0391
2.0750
5
136Berkhamsted Town
1.0379
1.0563
5
137Virginia Water
1.0303
2.1761
4
138Witham Town
1.0271
0.6199
8
139Woodford Town
1.0232
0.5437
5
140Skegness Town
1.0218
1.4902
5
141Punjab United
1.0202
2.3922
3
142Milton Keynes Irish
1.0142
0.9532
2
143Woking
1.0097
2.6189
7
144Cobham
1.0095
1.4980
4
145Ellistown & Ibstock Utd.
1.0039
0.9199
19
146Margate
0.9944
0.7975
7
147Lincoln
0.9933
0.8201
7
148Newark Flowserve
0.9932
1.3539
6
149Shepshed Dynamo
0.9829
0.9020
5
150Taunton Town
0.9792
1.0883
5
151Pilkington
0.9761
1.9987
5
152Chasetown
0.9647
0.7779
4
153Didcot Town
0.9556
0.9750
6
154Easington Sports
0.9526
1.0558
3
155FC Koln
0.9503
1.4382
70
156Evesham United
0.9476
1.6253
11
157Grays Athletic
0.9454
1.1927
5
158Dunston
0.9359
0.7725
8
159Barking
0.9324
1.3667
6
160Barnstaple Town
0.9310
1.2887
4
161Royston Town
0.9297
1.2621
6
162Scarborough
0.9269
0.8228
6
163Willenhall Town
0.9242
1.6461
35
164Gresley
0.9166
0.8675
5
165Bottesford Town
0.9142
1.9343
4
166Tavistock
0.9139
1.9459
3
167Ramsgate
0.9125
1.6468
5
168Northampton
0.8733
1.9223
5
169Grantham Town
0.8719
0.9948
6
170Fulham
0.8647
0.9096
5
171Binfield
0.8604
1.0061
1
172Coventry
0.8577
1.4731
7
173Hanwell Town
0.8506
0.5923
6
174Barnsley
0.8326
1.1913
4
175Bourne Town
0.8279
0.7133
4
176Ashington AFC
0.8256
1.2690
5
177Brentwood Town
0.8256
0.9454
5
178Dartford
0.8255
1.9939
4
179Crook Town AFC
0.8244
1.8447
6
180Brighton
0.8218
0.7480
5
181Garforth Town
0.8216
1.8283
5
182Sittingbourne
0.8101
1.4029
4
183Leeds
0.7998
0.5076
1
184Falmouth Town
0.7963
2.7400
4
185Newton Aycliffe
0.7898
2.0457
4
186Ipswich
0.7895
0.6606
10
187Crowborough Athletic
0.7893
1.6761
4
188South Park
0.7885
1.5335
5
189Darlington
0.7845
2.7891
4
190Warrington Rylands
0.7841
2.4773
4
191Bishop's Stortford
0.7793
1.9155
5
192Coleshill Town
0.7745
3.1823
4
193Reading
0.7725
2.5234
6
194Stamford
0.7710
0.2064
5
195Cray Valley (PM)
0.7640
1.1447
5
196Harpenden Town
0.7625
1.9635
6
197Broadbridge Heath
0.7610
1.5467
5
198Knaphill
0.7597
0.7257
3
199Havant & Waterlooville
0.7592
1.1101
4
200Stockton Town
0.7557
1.0613
3
201Haringey Borough
0.7409
2.9921
7
202Westfield
0.7381
1.2403
8
203Clevedon Town
0.7344
2.2279
2
204Ilford
0.7324
1.3109
4
205Mossley AFC
0.7272
0.8154
4
206Bishop's Cleeve
0.7238
3.0203
5
207Kidderminster
0.7199
1.3962
5
208Queens Park
0.7154
1.0723
3
209Braintree Town
0.7150
1.4711
20
210Bracknell Town
0.7090
1.1135
6
211Redcar Athletic
0.7087
1.8465
4
212Hyde United
0.7039
0.6262
5
213AFC Stoneham
0.6991
1.3470
7
214Athletic Newham
0.6919
1.6765
3
215AFC Wimbledon
0.6786
0.9769
11
216Wigan
0.6782
0.4540
6
2171874 Northwich
0.6760
1.9371
5
218Dudley Town
0.6709
1.6800
3
219Stoke
0.6699
1.6779
4
220Hitchin Town
0.6692
0.9727
4
221Celtic
0.6575
0.9380
10
222Silsden
0.6524
1.3665
5
223Alfreton Town
0.6469
1.3566
5
224Whitchurch Alport
0.6312
1.8867
4
225Leyton Orient
0.6307
1.7635
5
226Maidstone
0.6297
0.9641
4
227Leiston
0.6103
2.4266
5
228Burnley
0.6044
1.0063
4
229Whickham
0.6018
2.3099
5
230Brantham Athletic
0.5958
1.7112
4
231Queens Park Rangers
0.5920
1.6264
26
232Gosport Borough
0.5914
2.1856
5
233Loughborough University
0.5881
0.8923
6
234Bideford
0.5856
1.3835
2
235Kidsgrove Athletic
0.5821
1.2232
6
236Hull
0.5779
1.0464
9
237Morecambe
0.5727
0.8496
5
238North Leigh
0.5722
1.8111
3
239Ashton Athletic
0.5691
1.1818
6
240Staveley MW
0.5640
0.6191
5
241Slimbridge
0.5630
0.8153
2
242Wythenshawe Amateurs
0.5625
1.5681
3
243Herne Bay
0.5623
0.8326
3
244Southall
0.5584
2.6703
3
245Hereford
0.5481
1.5340
5
246Nailsea & Tickenham
0.5318
3.5117
4
247Worcester Raiders
0.5306
1.3303
2
248Sheffield Weds
0.5292
2.0431
4
249Aston Villa
0.5289
2.4822
3
250Little Oakley
0.5232
1.3485
2
251Cleethorpes Town
0.5218
1.0771
2
252Tamworth
0.5178
0.6338
4
253Bradford
0.5173
0.6022
6
254Bridlington Town
0.5170
0.7961
5
255Stafford Town
0.5166
0.9600
4
256Campion
0.5137
1.4832
2
257AFC Dunstable
0.5013
0.6820
4
258Colney Heath
0.4993
3.8083
4
259Bristol Rvs
0.4958
0.7716
4
260Leverstock Green
0.4932
1.4631
2
261Plymouth
0.4829
2.5838
8
262Bristol City
0.4753
0.8606
13
263Heaton Stannington
0.4592
0.5691
4
264Alton
0.4436
1.0363
4
265Stockport
0.4362
0.6322
5
266Larkhall Athletic
0.4281
0.7834
5
267Exmouth
0.4249
1.0526
3
268Burnham
0.4138
2.0972
1
269Leatherhead
0.4048
0.9908
3
270Larkfield & New Hythe
0.3972
2.8677
3
271Great Wakering Rovers
0.3968
0.5805
4
272Welling United
0.3861
1.1422
20
273Atherton Laburnum Rovers
0.3734
1.1742
15
274Broxbourne Borough V&E
0.3571
1.0258
5
275Milton United
0.3550
3.4625
4
276Preston
0.3513
1.4378
4
277Peterboro
0.3425
1.4504
6
278Takeley
0.3420
0.8831
4
279Guisborough Town
0.3343
0.7502
4
280Wycombe
0.2347
1.2315
4