Ligue 2
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 2,122 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1273
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
0.08097
low-score correction
Teams modelled
40
Log-likelihood
-436
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lorient | 1.6999 | 0.8274 | 43 |
| 2 | Metz | 1.6020 | 1.0240 | 72 |
| 3 | Toulouse | 1.5914 | 0.7949 | 76 |
| 4 | Auxerre | 1.4600 | 0.8339 | 123 |
| 5 | St Etienne | 1.2793 | 1.0162 | 99 |
| 6 | Reims | 1.2722 | 0.8242 | 23 |
| 7 | Paris FC | 1.2595 | 0.9212 | 195 |
| 8 | Dunkerque | 1.2530 | 0.9034 | 171 |
| 9 | Guingamp | 1.2194 | 1.2442 | 218 |
| 10 | Rodez | 1.2188 | 1.2774 | 218 |
| 11 | Pau FC | 1.1676 | 1.4823 | 209 |
| 12 | Bordeaux | 1.1546 | 1.2103 | 76 |
| 13 | Angers | 1.1329 | 1.0555 | 38 |
| 14 | Montpellier | 1.1163 | 0.9871 | 23 |
| 15 | Quevilly Rouen | 1.0937 | 1.3023 | 114 |
| 16 | Annecy | 1.0801 | 1.0042 | 133 |
| 17 | Troyes | 1.0528 | 0.9039 | 142 |
| 18 | Le Mans | 1.0517 | 0.8806 | 32 |
| 19 | Sochaux | 1.0086 | 1.1007 | 123 |
| 20 | Nimes | 1.0056 | 1.5973 | 76 |
| 21 | Red Star | 0.9845 | 1.0585 | 56 |
| 22 | Amiens | 0.9764 | 1.5763 | 209 |
| 23 | Boulogne | 0.9645 | 1.2824 | 23 |
| 24 | Chambly | 0.9099 | 1.4457 | 47 |
| 25 | Lens | 0.9017 | 0.9997 | 9 |
| 26 | Clermont | 0.8939 | 1.3059 | 104 |
| 27 | Orleans | 0.8913 | 1.0230 | 9 |
| 28 | Grenoble | 0.8817 | 1.1504 | 218 |
| 29 | Concarneau | 0.8597 | 1.4337 | 38 |
| 30 | Dijon | 0.8594 | 1.0448 | 76 |
| 31 | Caen | 0.8171 | 1.5107 | 195 |
| 32 | Martigues | 0.8057 | 1.3776 | 34 |
| 33 | Le Havre | 0.7999 | 0.6050 | 123 |
| 34 | Niort | 0.7607 | 1.5909 | 123 |
| 35 | Nancy | 0.7487 | 1.3213 | 108 |
| 36 | Chateauroux | 0.7478 | 1.3515 | 47 |
| 37 | Ajaccio | 0.7434 | 1.1136 | 157 |
| 38 | Laval | 0.7040 | 1.2416 | 133 |
| 39 | Valenciennes | 0.6432 | 1.2803 | 161 |
| 40 | Bastia | 0.6140 | 0.9456 | 170 |