1. HNL
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 305 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.2958
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.12142
low-score correction
Teams modelled
10
Log-likelihood
-265
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zagreb | 1.5087 | 0.9717 | 122 |
| 2 | Slaven Koprivnica | 1.1741 | 1.1409 | 61 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 1.1669 | 0.6787 | 61 |
| 4 | Hajduk Split | 1.1486 | 0.8042 | 61 |
| 5 | Varaždin | 0.9828 | 1.0018 | 61 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 0.9421 | 1.0678 | 61 |
| 7 | Vukovar | 0.9245 | 1.3247 | 25 |
| 8 | Gorica | 0.8960 | 1.1454 | 61 |
| 9 | Osijek | 0.8508 | 1.1236 | 61 |
| 10 | Šibenik | 0.6455 | 1.2464 | 36 |