Allsvenskan
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 350 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.0776
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.10770
low-score correction
Teams modelled
18
Log-likelihood
-238
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 1.4346 | 0.9203 | 44 |
| 2 | Sirius | 1.4077 | 1.5647 | 44 |
| 3 | Djurgården | 1.3978 | 1.0495 | 44 |
| 4 | Mjällby | 1.2724 | 0.4914 | 43 |
| 5 | Malmö FF | 1.1566 | 1.1039 | 43 |
| 6 | GAIS | 1.0952 | 0.9712 | 44 |
| 7 | Häcken | 1.0375 | 1.4750 | 43 |
| 8 | Elfsborg | 1.0307 | 1.6801 | 43 |
| 9 | Panathinaikos | 0.9775 | 1.0645 | 44 |
| 10 | IFK Göteborg | 0.9764 | 0.9026 | 44 |
| 11 | Värnamo | 0.9658 | 2.1271 | 44 |
| 12 | Brommapojkarna | 0.9428 | 1.4638 | 44 |
| 13 | Kalmar | 0.9253 | 1.5145 | 14 |
| 14 | Norrköping | 0.9181 | 1.6654 | 44 |
| 15 | Degerfors | 0.8223 | 1.4589 | 30 |
| 16 | Öster | 0.7683 | 1.5422 | 30 |
| 17 | Västerås SK | 0.7346 | 1.2629 | 14 |
| 18 | Halmstad | 0.5999 | 1.3370 | 44 |