⚽ FootballData
Dixon-Coles/National League (Conference)

National League (Conference)

Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 3,139 matches since 2020-01-01

Home Advantage (γ)
1.1792
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.08400
low-score correction
Teams modelled
47
Log-likelihood
-793

Team Parameters

Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.

#TeamAttack (α)Defense (β)Matches
1York
1.8497
0.8811
170
2Wrexham
1.8371
0.7135
142
3Notts County
1.8301
0.6999
144
4Chesterfield
1.5668
1.2109
188
5Barnet
1.5408
0.7283
234
6Boreham Wood
1.4195
1.1913
220
7Scunthorpe
1.4062
1.2407
77
8Carlisle
1.3533
1.0231
32
9Stockport
1.3053
0.7950
98
10Aldershot
1.2926
1.6184
268
11Rochdale
1.2643
0.6796
123
12Forest Green
1.2106
1.0423
79
13Southend
1.1850
0.8569
211
14Solihull
1.1728
1.2210
269
15Bromley
1.1328
0.8864
189
16Torquay
1.1220
1.2021
141
17Grimsby
1.0301
0.9340
44
18Boston Utd
1.0034
1.2679
79
19Halifax
0.9970
1.1364
267
20Woking
0.9936
1.0367
266
21Eastleigh
0.9904
1.4758
268
22Oldham
0.9731
0.9426
138
23Dag and Red
0.9654
1.1848
234
24Maidenhead
0.9600
1.3141
234
25Sutton
0.9509
1.3517
129
26Dorking
0.9241
1.5934
92
27Tamworth
0.9013
1.4550
77
28Gateshead
0.8980
1.8098
168
29King’s Lynn
0.8836
1.3123
87
30Altrincham
0.8827
1.2538
257
31Wealdstone
0.8789
1.4350
254
32Morecambe
0.8596
1.8697
32
33Hartlepool
0.8451
1.0924
178
34Barrow
0.8373
0.9990
11
35Harrogate
0.8373
0.9988
9
36Chorley
0.8343
1.0011
10
37Fylde
0.8251
1.5571
102
38Oxford City
0.7950
1.7283
46
39Dover Athletic
0.7849
1.5397
71
40Yeovil
0.7802
1.1793
219
41Weymouth
0.7790
1.4184
86
42Ebbsfleet
0.7021
1.7692
104
43Kidderminster
0.6969
1.0990
46
44Truro
0.6960
1.5021
31
45Brackley Town
0.6892
1.1567
30
46Maidstone
0.6745
1.8494
46
47Braintree Town
0.5760
1.1669
78