Süper Lig
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 2,455 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1482
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.25181
low-score correction
Teams modelled
36
Log-likelihood
-682
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 2.1000 | 0.6063 | 243 |
| 2 | Fenerbahce | 2.0704 | 0.8949 | 243 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1.8234 | 1.0313 | 243 |
| 4 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 1.6466 | 1.0133 | 61 |
| 5 | Besiktas | 1.6257 | 0.8575 | 244 |
| 6 | Buyuksehyr | 1.5766 | 1.0440 | 227 |
| 7 | Rizespor | 1.2549 | 1.1620 | 208 |
| 8 | Hatayspor | 1.2042 | 1.6443 | 196 |
| 9 | Goztep | 1.1198 | 0.6365 | 153 |
| 10 | Gaziantep | 1.0970 | 1.2574 | 243 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 1.0400 | 0.9653 | 242 |
| 12 | Göztepe | 1.0367 | 0.7479 | 61 |
| 13 | Kasimpasa | 1.0070 | 1.2016 | 227 |
| 14 | Samsunspor | 1.0060 | 0.9814 | 113 |
| 15 | Sivasspor | 0.9900 | 1.2727 | 213 |
| 16 | Umraniyespor | 0.9807 | 1.4102 | 36 |
| 17 | Ad. Demirspor | 0.9677 | 1.9176 | 156 |
| 18 | Konyaspor | 0.9591 | 1.0394 | 243 |
| 19 | Giresunspor | 0.9483 | 1.1826 | 74 |
| 20 | Kasımpaşa | 0.9414 | 1.1793 | 61 |
| 21 | Genclerbirligi | 0.9408 | 0.9941 | 87 |
| 22 | Ankaragucu | 0.9265 | 1.1116 | 131 |
| 23 | Erzurum BB | 0.9147 | 1.0771 | 40 |
| 24 | Karagumruk | 0.8951 | 1.3972 | 174 |
| 25 | Denizlispor | 0.8680 | 1.1366 | 57 |
| 26 | Kayserispor | 0.8678 | 1.2268 | 245 |
| 27 | Eyupspor | 0.8484 | 1.0602 | 74 |
| 28 | Pendikspor | 0.8472 | 1.4196 | 38 |
| 29 | Fatih Karagümrük | 0.8284 | 1.3324 | 25 |
| 30 | Altay | 0.7794 | 1.1346 | 38 |
| 31 | Antalyaspor | 0.7599 | 1.1822 | 244 |
| 32 | Kocaelispor | 0.7124 | 0.6534 | 29 |
| 33 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 0.6333 | 1.5059 | 95 |
| 34 | Bodrumspor | 0.5996 | 0.8570 | 36 |
| 35 | Bodrum FK | 0.5985 | 0.8576 | 36 |
| 36 | Istanbulspor | 0.5968 | 1.6446 | 74 |