Championship
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 3,558 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1888
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.08416
low-score correction
Teams modelled
44
Log-likelihood
-1125
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds | 1.7275 | 0.6184 | 115 |
| 2 | Fulham | 1.7199 | 0.8714 | 65 |
| 3 | Coventry | 1.5748 | 0.9508 | 272 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 1.4670 | 0.8987 | 86 |
| 5 | Burnley | 1.4558 | 0.3096 | 95 |
| 6 | Southampton | 1.4316 | 1.0892 | 84 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 1.3068 | 0.8048 | 89 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 1.3012 | 1.1427 | 41 |
| 9 | Middlesbrough | 1.2676 | 0.8915 | 289 |
| 10 | Nott'm Forest | 1.2597 | 0.7406 | 114 |
| 11 | Norwich | 1.2117 | 1.0482 | 224 |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 1.2055 | 0.9937 | 181 |
| 13 | Hull | 1.1815 | 1.2172 | 243 |
| 14 | Derby | 1.1539 | 1.0712 | 198 |
| 15 | Leicester | 1.1446 | 1.4004 | 85 |
| 16 | Millwall | 1.1306 | 0.9283 | 291 |
| 17 | QPR | 1.0961 | 1.2209 | 283 |
| 18 | Queens Park Rangers | 1.0554 | 1.3346 | 84 |
| 19 | Brentford | 1.0329 | 0.9583 | 64 |
| 20 | Birmingham | 1.0204 | 1.0970 | 240 |
| 21 | Bristol City | 1.0135 | 1.1235 | 294 |
| 22 | Swansea | 1.0119 | 1.0149 | 292 |
| 23 | Watford | 0.9930 | 1.0763 | 223 |
| 24 | Sunderland | 0.9412 | 0.8565 | 143 |
| 25 | Plymouth | 0.9340 | 1.5691 | 96 |
| 26 | Stoke | 0.9288 | 0.9647 | 289 |
| 27 | Preston | 0.9177 | 1.1579 | 290 |
| 28 | West Brom | 0.8894 | 1.1658 | 246 |
| 29 | Blackpool | 0.8879 | 1.3856 | 89 |
| 30 | Huddersfield | 0.8624 | 1.4322 | 197 |
| 31 | Luton | 0.8566 | 1.2087 | 205 |
| 32 | Portsmouth | 0.8562 | 1.1108 | 90 |
| 33 | Cardiff | 0.8449 | 1.3315 | 247 |
| 34 | Reading | 0.8185 | 1.3637 | 155 |
| 35 | Blackburn | 0.8124 | 1.0322 | 292 |
| 36 | Peterboro | 0.8097 | 1.6268 | 44 |
| 37 | Oxford | 0.7868 | 1.0607 | 91 |
| 38 | Wycombe | 0.7709 | 1.0478 | 44 |
| 39 | Charlton | 0.7621 | 0.9645 | 62 |
| 40 | Barnsley | 0.7245 | 1.3519 | 109 |
| 41 | Rotherham | 0.6537 | 1.5530 | 134 |
| 42 | Wigan | 0.6105 | 1.1579 | 66 |
| 43 | Sheffield Weds | 0.6019 | 1.6005 | 191 |
| 44 | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.5874 | 1.5876 | 84 |