Super League Greece
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 1,468 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.2013
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.09256
low-score correction
Teams modelled
21
Log-likelihood
-322
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAOK | 1.9382 | 0.6153 | 216 |
| 2 | Levadeiakos | 1.8295 | 1.0017 | 89 |
| 3 | AEK | 1.7577 | 0.5754 | 218 |
| 4 | Olympiakos | 1.6466 | 0.3901 | 217 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 1.3207 | 0.7610 | 217 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 1.2557 | 1.2194 | 204 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 1.0745 | 1.2680 | 53 |
| 8 | Atromitos | 1.0099 | 0.9367 | 203 |
| 9 | Panionios | 0.9708 | 0.9928 | 17 |
| 10 | Aris | 0.9503 | 0.6983 | 217 |
| 11 | Giannina | 0.9070 | 1.5205 | 135 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 0.8930 | 1.1504 | 205 |
| 13 | Panetolikos | 0.8897 | 1.0120 | 206 |
| 14 | Larisa | 0.8816 | 1.1991 | 71 |
| 15 | Volos NFC | 0.8445 | 1.0830 | 208 |
| 16 | Athens Kallithea | 0.8331 | 1.1865 | 35 |
| 17 | Ionikos | 0.7636 | 1.1348 | 66 |
| 18 | Xanthi | 0.7576 | 0.9929 | 17 |
| 19 | Panserraikos | 0.6982 | 1.6259 | 89 |
| 20 | Lamia | 0.6376 | 1.4951 | 187 |
| 21 | Apollon | 0.5098 | 1.3907 | 66 |