Premier League
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 386 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.4503
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.11880
low-score correction
Teams modelled
18
Log-likelihood
-283
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Moskva | 1.6719 | 0.9488 | 48 |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 1.6523 | 0.6631 | 48 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 1.5428 | 1.1010 | 49 |
| 4 | Zenit | 1.4530 | 0.4648 | 49 |
| 5 | Spartak Moskva | 1.4303 | 0.9578 | 49 |
| 6 | CSKA Moskva | 1.1896 | 0.7795 | 48 |
| 7 | Akron | 1.0955 | 1.2519 | 48 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 1.0322 | 0.8716 | 49 |
| 9 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 1.0077 | 0.3331 | 20 |
| 10 | Krylya Sovetov | 0.9971 | 1.3127 | 48 |
| 11 | Khimki | 0.9917 | 1.4499 | 28 |
| 12 | Akhmat Grozny | 0.9897 | 0.9566 | 48 |
| 13 | Sochi | 0.9200 | 1.7543 | 20 |
| 14 | Orenburg | 0.9024 | 1.1017 | 48 |
| 15 | Rostov | 0.8415 | 0.8397 | 48 |
| 16 | Bodrum FK | 0.6891 | 1.0851 | 48 |
| 17 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 0.5303 | 0.9171 | 48 |
| 18 | Fakel | 0.3334 | 0.9785 | 28 |