Scottish League One
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 995 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1602
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.06608
low-score correction
Teams modelled
25
Log-likelihood
-263
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Airdrie Utd | 1.8656 | 1.0706 | 103 |
| 2 | Falkirk | 1.8080 | 0.8362 | 139 |
| 3 | Partick | 1.5582 | 0.7308 | 22 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 1.3879 | 0.4492 | 36 |
| 5 | Inverness C | 1.2878 | 0.6349 | 60 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 1.2763 | 1.0116 | 36 |
| 7 | Queen of Sth | 1.2535 | 1.1207 | 133 |
| 8 | FC Edinburgh | 1.1986 | 1.2159 | 36 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 1.1958 | 1.5310 | 103 |
| 10 | Hamilton | 1.1457 | 0.9040 | 60 |
| 11 | Alloa | 1.1259 | 0.9144 | 168 |
| 12 | Peterhead | 1.0733 | 1.7231 | 125 |
| 13 | Cove Rangers | 1.0577 | 1.1160 | 155 |
| 14 | Stenhousemuir | 1.0524 | 0.8648 | 60 |
| 15 | Montrose | 1.0409 | 1.4891 | 199 |
| 16 | Annan Athletic | 1.0358 | 1.6175 | 72 |
| 17 | Raith Rvs | 0.9603 | 0.9888 | 9 |
| 18 | Queens Park | 0.9387 | 0.7996 | 36 |
| 19 | Stirling | 0.7925 | 1.3744 | 36 |
| 20 | Edinburgh City | 0.7443 | 2.2847 | 36 |
| 21 | East Fife | 0.7379 | 1.5521 | 92 |
| 22 | Kelty Hearts | 0.7291 | 1.5808 | 132 |
| 23 | Clyde | 0.7220 | 1.2904 | 103 |
| 24 | Forfar | 0.6682 | 1.4394 | 31 |
| 25 | Stranraer | 0.2024 | 1.0333 | 8 |