Bundesliga
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 2,369 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1809
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.07542
low-score correction
Teams modelled
40
Log-likelihood
-1014
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 2.5597 | 0.7798 | 209 |
| 2 | FC Koln | 1.7994 | 1.1210 | 238 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 1.6017 | 0.9037 | 218 |
| 4 | Hoffenheim | 1.4701 | 1.2282 | 221 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 1.4488 | 1.0990 | 203 |
| 6 | Ein Frankfurt | 1.4448 | 1.4656 | 209 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.3900 | 1.4109 | 59 |
| 8 | Leverkusen | 1.3665 | 0.9363 | 221 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 1.3248 | 1.1342 | 217 |
| 10 | Salzburg | 1.3018 | 1.0868 | 54 |
| 11 | Holstein Kiel | 1.1791 | 1.9044 | 40 |
| 12 | Sturm Graz | 1.1249 | 1.1044 | 54 |
| 13 | Austria Wien | 1.1124 | 1.3333 | 86 |
| 14 | AC London | 1.1080 | 1.3790 | 54 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 1.0636 | 1.5887 | 219 |
| 16 | Freiburg | 1.0427 | 1.2897 | 217 |
| 17 | WSG Tirol | 1.0134 | 1.3005 | 54 |
| 18 | LASK Linz | 0.9736 | 1.3151 | 111 |
| 19 | Mainz | 0.9695 | 1.0720 | 217 |
| 20 | M'gladbach | 0.9580 | 1.2967 | 209 |
| 21 | Hertha | 0.9339 | 1.4774 | 115 |
| 22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.9200 | 1.3422 | 59 |
| 23 | Union Berlin | 0.9096 | 1.1915 | 218 |
| 24 | SK Rapid | 0.8996 | 1.1127 | 56 |
| 25 | Werder Bremen | 0.8977 | 1.3749 | 189 |
| 26 | Hartberg | 0.8850 | 0.9618 | 55 |
| 27 | Augsburg | 0.8391 | 1.1716 | 218 |
| 28 | Hamburg | 0.8280 | 1.0664 | 30 |
| 29 | Ried | 0.8117 | 1.2467 | 22 |
| 30 | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 0.8007 | 1.0080 | 16 |
| 31 | Paderborn | 0.7992 | 1.0152 | 16 |
| 32 | Grazer AK | 0.7825 | 1.4256 | 54 |
| 33 | Schalke 04 | 0.7631 | 1.5845 | 81 |
| 34 | Bochum | 0.7620 | 1.5981 | 140 |
| 35 | Rheindorf Altach | 0.7257 | 1.0570 | 54 |
| 36 | Heidenheim | 0.7130 | 1.7041 | 102 |
| 37 | Greuther Furth | 0.7009 | 1.6605 | 34 |
| 38 | Bielefeld | 0.6530 | 1.1800 | 68 |
| 39 | St Pauli | 0.6497 | 1.1373 | 68 |
| 40 | Darmstadt | 0.5736 | 1.8162 | 33 |