Primeira Liga
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 1,910 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.2536
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
0.04374
low-score correction
Teams modelled
28
Log-likelihood
-435
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sp Lisbon | 2.1027 | 0.4869 | 212 |
| 2 | Benfica | 1.8371 | 0.5452 | 212 |
| 3 | Sp Braga | 1.6726 | 0.7168 | 212 |
| 4 | Estoril | 1.6209 | 1.3128 | 159 |
| 5 | Porto | 1.5890 | 0.4002 | 212 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 1.2562 | 0.7651 | 212 |
| 7 | Arouca | 1.1265 | 1.4482 | 158 |
| 8 | Famalicao | 1.1115 | 0.8429 | 212 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 1.0860 | 1.0567 | 178 |
| 10 | Guimaraes | 1.0542 | 0.9914 | 212 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 1.0217 | 1.2468 | 124 |
| 12 | Nacional | 0.9988 | 1.0116 | 91 |
| 13 | Portimonense | 0.9775 | 1.4816 | 156 |
| 14 | Setubal | 0.9575 | 1.0116 | 20 |
| 15 | Aves | 0.9369 | 1.0261 | 20 |
| 16 | Estrela | 0.9257 | 1.2979 | 90 |
| 17 | Vizela | 0.9126 | 1.3993 | 102 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 0.9045 | 1.3859 | 178 |
| 19 | Maritimo | 0.8996 | 1.2826 | 122 |
| 20 | Alverca | 0.8761 | 1.2321 | 22 |
| 21 | Farense | 0.7681 | 0.9961 | 102 |
| 22 | Chaves | 0.7453 | 1.3426 | 68 |
| 23 | Santa Clara | 0.7252 | 0.8661 | 179 |
| 24 | Pacos Ferreira | 0.7240 | 1.3019 | 122 |
| 25 | Boavista | 0.7071 | 1.3591 | 190 |
| 26 | AVS | 0.6951 | 1.6615 | 57 |
| 27 | Tondela | 0.6476 | 1.1224 | 110 |
| 28 | Belenenses | 0.6472 | 1.1620 | 88 |