Serie A
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 2,368 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1341
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
0.01701
low-score correction
Teams modelled
31
Log-likelihood
-648
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1.9971 | 0.6410 | 240 |
| 2 | Juventus | 1.6687 | 0.8196 | 237 |
| 3 | Como | 1.5330 | 0.6991 | 66 |
| 4 | Milan | 1.4306 | 0.6722 | 235 |
| 5 | Napoli | 1.4279 | 0.8243 | 236 |
| 6 | Atalanta | 1.4275 | 0.7575 | 236 |
| 7 | Roma | 1.3585 | 0.6798 | 235 |
| 8 | Genoa | 1.1943 | 1.0672 | 199 |
| 9 | Bologna | 1.1723 | 1.0121 | 235 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 1.1287 | 1.1267 | 202 |
| 11 | Fiorentina | 1.1230 | 1.1403 | 237 |
| 12 | Torino | 1.0714 | 1.2956 | 236 |
| 13 | Udinese | 1.0509 | 1.1355 | 238 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 1.0102 | 1.2019 | 201 |
| 15 | Crotone | 1.0057 | 2.0453 | 38 |
| 16 | Lazio | 0.9955 | 0.8429 | 237 |
| 17 | Frosinone | 0.9201 | 1.4282 | 38 |
| 18 | Brescia | 0.9023 | 1.1305 | 20 |
| 19 | Benevento | 0.8834 | 1.5777 | 37 |
| 20 | Spal | 0.8747 | 1.1482 | 20 |
| 21 | Salernitana | 0.8439 | 1.7153 | 113 |
| 22 | Empoli | 0.8176 | 1.3090 | 149 |
| 23 | Venezia | 0.7860 | 1.1612 | 76 |
| 24 | Pisa | 0.7786 | 1.3539 | 29 |
| 25 | Parma | 0.7596 | 1.0327 | 126 |
| 26 | Spezia | 0.7375 | 1.3771 | 110 |
| 27 | Verona | 0.7225 | 1.4415 | 239 |
| 28 | Lecce | 0.7194 | 1.0637 | 162 |
| 29 | Monza | 0.6969 | 1.5002 | 112 |
| 30 | Sampdoria | 0.6670 | 1.6043 | 133 |
| 31 | Cremonese | 0.6669 | 1.1445 | 64 |