Ekstraklasa
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 507 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.2802
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.08644
low-score correction
Teams modelled
21
Log-likelihood
-452
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lechia Gdańsk | 1.4954 | 1.4578 | 56 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 1.3957 | 1.1679 | 56 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1.1752 | 1.0865 | 56 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin | 1.1410 | 0.9773 | 56 |
| 5 | Radomiak Radom | 1.1084 | 1.2006 | 57 |
| 6 | Katowice | 1.0849 | 1.0576 | 55 |
| 7 | Raków Częstochowa | 1.0723 | 0.8961 | 56 |
| 8 | Motor Lublin | 1.0524 | 1.3189 | 57 |
| 9 | Pogoń Szczecin | 1.0422 | 1.1460 | 56 |
| 10 | Legia Warszawa | 0.9841 | 1.0958 | 57 |
| 11 | Stal Mielec | 0.9543 | 1.5114 | 32 |
| 12 | Piast Gliwice | 0.9367 | 1.0723 | 57 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 0.9353 | 1.3152 | 32 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce | 0.9196 | 1.0205 | 56 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 0.9194 | 1.4442 | 24 |
| 16 | Górnik Zabrze | 0.8943 | 1.0884 | 56 |
| 17 | Widzew Lodz | 0.8897 | 1.1497 | 56 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 0.8832 | 1.7761 | 32 |
| 19 | Cracovia Kraków | 0.8827 | 1.0276 | 57 |
| 20 | Nieciecza | 0.8119 | 1.4576 | 25 |
| 21 | Wisła Płock | 0.7212 | 0.9854 | 25 |