Premier League
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 15 Mar 2026 on 2,578 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.1703
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.12386
low-score correction
Teams modelled
31
Log-likelihood
-887
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 1.6327 | 0.7690 | 234 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1.5845 | 0.6928 | 251 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 1.5126 | 0.9089 | 247 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 1.4676 | 0.9204 | 134 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 1.4065 | 1.0967 | 247 |
| 6 | Man United | 1.3463 | 1.1061 | 234 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 1.3227 | 1.1878 | 171 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 1.2973 | 1.1232 | 245 |
| 9 | Brentford | 1.2858 | 1.0984 | 192 |
| 10 | Leeds | 1.2318 | 1.2697 | 147 |
| 11 | Fulham | 1.1952 | 1.2322 | 191 |
| 12 | Brighton | 1.1831 | 1.0252 | 246 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 1.1738 | 0.9250 | 245 |
| 14 | Luton | 1.1081 | 1.8884 | 37 |
| 15 | Tottenham | 1.0913 | 1.3589 | 249 |
| 16 | Burnley | 1.0320 | 1.6084 | 163 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 1.0124 | 1.0708 | 247 |
| 18 | Everton | 0.9987 | 0.8473 | 247 |
| 19 | West Ham | 0.9878 | 1.3486 | 249 |
| 20 | Nott'm Forest | 0.9095 | 1.0909 | 140 |
| 21 | Nottingham Forest | 0.9093 | 1.0821 | 67 |
| 22 | West Brom | 0.8114 | 1.2426 | 37 |
| 23 | Ipswich | 0.7904 | 1.8923 | 46 |
| 24 | Sunderland | 0.7873 | 0.8830 | 34 |
| 25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0.7763 | 1.2242 | 68 |
| 26 | Sheffield United | 0.7527 | 2.1545 | 93 |
| 27 | Wolves | 0.7345 | 1.3099 | 235 |
| 28 | Leicester | 0.5977 | 1.7017 | 173 |
| 29 | Watford | 0.5906 | 1.7696 | 55 |
| 30 | Southampton | 0.5515 | 1.7224 | 176 |
| 31 | Norwich | 0.4688 | 1.9040 | 56 |