Serie B
Dixon-Coles model — fitted 16 Mar 2026 on 2,345 matches since 2020-01-01
Home Advantage (γ)
1.3002
>1 = home favoured
ρ (rho)
-0.09896
low-score correction
Teams modelled
47
Log-likelihood
-674
Team Parameters
Attack (α) — normalised attacking strength; mean ≈ 1.0. Defense (β) — defensive weakness; lower = harder to score against.
| # | Team | Attack (α) | Defense (β) | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia | 1.6341 | 0.7412 | 160 |
| 2 | Sassuolo | 1.6300 | 0.8885 | 38 |
| 3 | Cremonese | 1.3767 | 1.0016 | 173 |
| 4 | Monza | 1.3767 | 0.7408 | 106 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 1.3763 | 0.9041 | 196 |
| 6 | Parma | 1.3438 | 0.8113 | 109 |
| 7 | Genoa | 1.3356 | 0.6256 | 36 |
| 8 | Pisa | 1.3243 | 0.9045 | 203 |
| 9 | Palermo | 1.3096 | 0.8472 | 141 |
| 10 | Como | 1.2712 | 0.8986 | 110 |
| 11 | Cagliari | 1.2621 | 0.6225 | 36 |
| 12 | Catanzaro | 1.2607 | 1.0504 | 106 |
| 13 | Lecce | 1.2560 | 0.7869 | 76 |
| 14 | Pescara | 1.1168 | 1.4375 | 83 |
| 15 | Reggina | 1.0395 | 1.0205 | 109 |
| 16 | Modena | 1.0245 | 0.8153 | 140 |
| 17 | FeralpiSalo | 1.0166 | 1.3818 | 37 |
| 18 | Empoli | 1.0150 | 1.2667 | 86 |
| 19 | Chievo | 0.9962 | 0.9746 | 57 |
| 20 | Perugia | 0.9863 | 1.0580 | 93 |
| 21 | Trapani | 0.9779 | 0.9975 | 18 |
| 22 | Crotone | 0.9658 | 1.2301 | 54 |
| 23 | Livorno | 0.9641 | 1.0170 | 17 |
| 24 | Spal | 0.9624 | 1.0773 | 109 |
| 25 | Cesena | 0.9536 | 1.2238 | 69 |
| 26 | Ternana | 0.9491 | 1.1086 | 112 |
| 27 | Carrarese | 0.9435 | 1.1406 | 68 |
| 28 | Mantova | 0.9389 | 1.2721 | 68 |
| 29 | Spezia | 0.9300 | 1.1202 | 128 |
| 30 | Sudtirol | 0.9288 | 0.8676 | 141 |
| 31 | Benevento | 0.9124 | 1.0824 | 93 |
| 32 | Vicenza | 0.9106 | 1.1412 | 74 |
| 33 | Brescia | 0.8923 | 1.0313 | 187 |
| 34 | Juve Stabia | 0.8744 | 1.0131 | 89 |
| 35 | Alessandria | 0.8657 | 1.2054 | 37 |
| 36 | Padova | 0.8582 | 1.0897 | 29 |
| 37 | Avellino | 0.8448 | 1.2677 | 30 |
| 38 | Ascoli | 0.8312 | 0.8778 | 167 |
| 39 | Bari | 0.8163 | 1.2281 | 142 |
| 40 | Sampdoria | 0.8151 | 1.0442 | 107 |
| 41 | Virtus Entella | 0.7919 | 1.1348 | 85 |
| 42 | Reggiana | 0.7837 | 1.2688 | 142 |
| 43 | Pordenone | 0.7677 | 1.3874 | 91 |
| 44 | Cosenza | 0.7199 | 1.2854 | 203 |
| 45 | Cittadella | 0.6970 | 1.2008 | 203 |
| 46 | Lecco | 0.6855 | 1.6868 | 36 |
| 47 | Salernitana | 0.6745 | 0.9478 | 96 |