Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.8%
Porto
14.9%
Draw
4.3%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.36
Porto
vs
0.40
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS30.5%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.552.1%
Over 3.529.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.6%
1-0
14.5%
3-0
13.8%
4-0
8.1%
2-1
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
1-1
6.5%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
3.8%
4-1
3.3%
0-1
2.1%
5-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).