Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.4%
Arsenal
24.2%
Draw
11.4%
Crystal Palace
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Arsenal
vs
0.68
Crystal Palace
Markets
BTTS42.9%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.573.5%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.7%
1-0
13.3%
1-1
11.3%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.0%
0-1
4.0%
1-2
3.4%
2-2
3.1%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).