Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.6%
Manchester City
24.3%
Draw
18.0%
Fulham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Manchester City
vs
1.04
Fulham
Markets
BTTS56.9%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.535.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
3-0
6.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
5.2%
0-1
3.7%
3-2
3.4%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).