Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.8%
Mainz
32.2%
Draw
26.0%
Paderborn
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Mainz
vs
0.86
Paderborn
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.585.7%
Over 1.560.9%
Over 2.532.8%
Over 3.514.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
0-0
14.3%
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.9%
3-0
3.5%
2-2
3.3%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).