Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.6%
Spezia
28.3%
Draw
39.1%
Catanzaro
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Spezia
vs
1.41
Catanzaro
Markets
BTTS55.6%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.5%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.5%
1-3
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
0-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).