Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.8%
Millwall
30.4%
Draw
23.9%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Millwall
vs
0.86
Stoke
Markets
BTTS43.0%
Over 0.587.6%
Over 1.564.6%
Over 2.536.8%
Over 3.517.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
9.7%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
3.6%
2-2
3.6%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).