Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.9%
Villarreal
21.7%
Draw
17.4%
Ath Bilbao
Expected Goals (xG)
1.98
Villarreal
vs
0.96
Ath Bilbao
Markets
BTTS53.4%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.533.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.4%
1-1
10.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).