Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →16.2%
Spal
24.9%
Draw
58.9%
Roma
Expected Goals (xG)
0.67
Spal
vs
1.56
Roma
Markets
BTTS38.6%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.565.2%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.9%
0-2
13.0%
1-1
11.1%
0-0
10.5%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.4%
0-3
6.8%
1-3
4.6%
2-1
3.8%
2-2
3.0%
0-4
2.6%
2-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).