Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.7%
Porto
17.5%
Draw
5.8%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.16
Porto
vs
0.45
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS32.4%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.548.3%
Over 3.526.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.2%
1-0
15.4%
3-0
12.4%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
1-1
7.7%
4-0
6.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-1
3.0%
5-0
2.9%
0-1
2.7%
2-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).