Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.7%
Newcastle
26.5%
Draw
31.8%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.68
Newcastle
vs
1.45
Man United
Markets
BTTS63.9%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.560.7%
Over 3.538.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
0-0
5.8%
3-1
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.7%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).