Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.8%
Derby
24.0%
Draw
60.2%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
0.85
Derby
vs
1.85
Leeds
Markets
BTTS49.1%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.550.6%
Over 3.528.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
11.6%
0-2
11.5%
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
0-3
7.1%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
4.5%
2-2
4.1%
0-4
3.3%
1-4
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).