Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.9%
Cardiff
19.9%
Draw
14.2%
Stevenage
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Cardiff
vs
0.70
Stevenage
Markets
BTTS41.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.547.1%
Over 3.525.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
2-0
13.4%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
9.2%
3-0
8.3%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
3.9%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
3.3%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).