Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.8%
Southampton
24.7%
Draw
25.5%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Southampton
vs
1.26
Derby
Markets
BTTS60.9%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.582.1%
Over 2.559.4%
Over 3.537.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.5%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
4.9%
3-0
4.6%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).