Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.8%
Real Madrid
20.2%
Draw
14.0%
Celta
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Real Madrid
vs
0.85
Celta
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.556.2%
Over 3.533.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
4.3%
4-0
4.2%
2-2
4.2%
1-2
4.0%
4-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).