Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.5%
Manchester City
17.1%
Draw
9.5%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.64
Manchester City
vs
0.90
Burnley
Markets
BTTS56.1%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.587.8%
Over 2.568.7%
Over 3.547.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
8.9%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.8%
1-0
6.7%
4-0
5.9%
4-1
5.3%
2-2
4.1%
0-0
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
1-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).