Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.0%
Sp Braga
26.8%
Draw
40.2%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Sp Braga
vs
1.46
Benfica
Markets
BTTS56.8%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.552.3%
Over 3.530.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.0%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.3%
1-3
4.3%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).