Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Middlesbrough
28.4%
Draw
20.4%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Middlesbrough
vs
0.83
Stoke
Markets
BTTS44.2%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.540.1%
Over 3.519.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
5.1%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
3.5%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).