Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.8%
Alverca
30.8%
Draw
32.4%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Alverca
vs
1.08
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS46.5%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.566.7%
Over 2.538.9%
Over 3.519.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.6%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
10.4%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.0%
3-0
2.8%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).