Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.6%
Sassuolo
25.9%
Draw
25.5%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Sassuolo
vs
0.99
Spal
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.544.5%
Over 3.523.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.8%
1-1
12.2%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).