Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.1%
Carlisle
23.4%
Draw
49.5%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Carlisle
vs
1.66
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS55.0%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.553.3%
Over 3.531.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.1%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
6.6%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
1-3
5.3%
0-3
4.5%
2-0
4.0%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).