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AHT: 01CSV

07 Apr 2023 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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12.4%
Middlesbrough
30.9%
Draw
56.6%
Burnley

Expected Goals (xG)

0.47

Middlesbrough

vs
1.30

Burnley

Markets

BTTS28.0%
Over 0.582.0%
Over 1.553.5%
Over 2.526.0%
Over 3.510.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
21.4%
0-0
18.0%
0-2
14.4%
1-1
11.2%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
2.9%
2-1
2.4%
0-4
2.0%
2-0
1.9%
2-2
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).