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21 Apr 2026 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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34.2%
West Brom
30.6%
Draw
35.2%
Watford

Expected Goals (xG)

1.14

West Brom

vs
1.16

Watford

Markets

BTTS47.7%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
10.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
4.4%
1-3
3.0%
3-1
2.9%
0-3
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).