Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.4%
Port Vale
27.1%
Draw
23.5%
Accrington
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Port Vale
vs
0.82
Accrington
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.563.2%
Over 2.536.8%
Over 3.517.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
9.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.9%
3-1
3.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).