Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.7%
Casa Pia
22.0%
Draw
69.3%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.51
Casa Pia
vs
1.86
Porto
Markets
BTTS34.5%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.521.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.7%
0-2
16.1%
0-0
10.0%
0-3
10.0%
1-1
9.6%
1-2
8.3%
1-3
5.1%
0-4
4.6%
1-0
4.1%
1-4
2.4%
2-1
2.3%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).