Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.7%
Watford
21.4%
Draw
68.9%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68
Watford
vs
2.09
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.7%
0-1
11.8%
1-1
10.1%
0-3
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
7.5%
1-3
6.5%
0-4
5.0%
1-4
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
2-1
3.0%
1-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).