Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →91.0%
Sp Lisbon
6.6%
Draw
2.4%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
3.38
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.44
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS34.1%
Over 0.597.9%
Over 1.589.3%
Over 2.573.4%
Over 3.553.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
14.1%
2-0
12.6%
4-0
12.0%
5-0
8.1%
1-0
7.6%
3-1
6.2%
2-1
5.5%
4-1
5.2%
5-1
3.5%
1-1
3.1%
0-0
2.1%
3-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).