Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.3%
Nacional
32.2%
Draw
38.6%
Famalicao
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94
Nacional
vs
1.12
Famalicao
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.586.3%
Over 1.562.1%
Over 2.534.1%
Over 3.515.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.7%
0-1
13.2%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
3.5%
0-3
3.0%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).