Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.9%
Real Madrid
19.5%
Draw
15.6%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.26
Real Madrid
vs
1.03
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS57.8%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.584.3%
Over 2.563.9%
Over 3.541.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.5%
1-1
9.0%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.2%
2-2
5.0%
1-2
4.5%
4-1
4.2%
4-0
4.1%
0-0
4.0%
3-2
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).