Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.2%
AFC Wimbledon
28.3%
Draw
49.5%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75
AFC Wimbledon
vs
1.28
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS37.7%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.559.8%
Over 2.533.1%
Over 3.514.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.2%
0-0
12.7%
1-1
12.2%
0-2
10.8%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
4.7%
0-3
4.6%
2-0
3.7%
1-3
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
0-4
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).