Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.2%
Luton
26.9%
Draw
25.9%
Plymouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Luton
vs
1.13
Plymouth
Markets
BTTS55.0%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.551.3%
Over 3.529.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).