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14 Nov 2015

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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32.8%
Kidderminster
27.9%
Draw
39.4%
Aldershot

Expected Goals (xG)

1.27

Kidderminster

vs
1.41

Aldershot

Markets

BTTS55.5%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.550.3%
Over 3.528.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.5%
2-0
5.5%
1-3
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
0-3
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).