Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.7%
Manchester City
26.3%
Draw
20.9%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Manchester City
vs
1.06
Brighton
Markets
BTTS56.0%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.554.1%
Over 3.531.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
5.8%
3-1
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
0-1
4.6%
0-2
3.3%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).